4.1) India's Predicament

In real terms, there is little India alone can do to neutralize the Kashmir factor. Kashmir is not a recent problem, it has been there since 1947 and India has been dealing with it one way or the other , with only short term 'benefits' but no long term 'gain'. (India's past and present dealing of Kashmir will be sketched in some more detail at (5)). To start with, in 1947 it brought in Sheikh Abdullah, arrested him in 1953 after which a chain of proxy governments followed. Then after concluding that Sheikh was after all the 'best' bet, India entered into negotiations with Sheikh and a deal was made according to which Sheikh Abdullah was brought back to power in 1974. This arrangement continued, with Sheikh Abdullah's son, Dr Farooq taking over after former's death. Then in 1989, with the emergence of present movement everything was torn asunder: no government, no Sheikhs, nobody to 'take care' of India in Kashmir. With slight differences, the situation was back to square one i.e 1947. Now, this time again India can repeat what it used to do: after what India calls crushing the militancy by sheer brute military force it will install a government and that is nothing new. India just has to wait for a day when this arrangement also like the previous ones goes off and India again finds itself in the predicament to 'start' dealing with Kashmir.

This is a futile game and Indian leaders now also realize this. They realize that if they want to eliminate the Kashmir factor--- which they have to--- attempts at changing the situation in Kashmir alone, though necessary, will not suffice; something more has to be done, mainly Pakistan has to be brought around. 1974 Indira-Sheikh accord was disapproved by Pakistan and results are for anyone to see.104 Remaining determined not to give up Kashmir (which could really resolve the issue) the Hindu ruling elites want a kind of 'solution' or 'settlement' or 'peace plan' that takes care of Kashmir for ever: the problem does not erupt again and again and, more importantly, it ceases to be an issue altogether. This is not possible without a 'comprehensive settlement' involving Pakistan and, of course, Kashmir. This 'settlement' is a vital need of India, political as well as economic but at the same time India by itself cannot bring it about. It is not possible for India to grab Kashmir and then, on its own, make Pakistan toe its line, neither is it possible for India to change the situation in Kashmir beyond a point. The only viable instrument available to India for manoeuvre in Kashmir is National Conference, but that leaves much of the political spectrum, indeed the major part of it, beyond the reach of direct Indian influence. More important than that, from 1989 onwards the freedom movement in Kashmir had almost monopolized the political space and the openly pro-India forces felt suffocated, there being no room for them to operate or manoeuvre.105 Although things have been changing recently , yet the degree to which the pro-India forces in Kashmir are capable of manoeuvre still depends on how much the freedom movement there, allows it.

U.S has an influence on Pakistan, and the present freedom movement in Kashmir, particularly its political leadership has been favourably inclined to the West. This places U.S in a unique position where India is left with no other option but to seek its help since U.S influence can work, where India's cannot and where it is needed most.