1.4) India as one of the key states

After discussing the broad outlines of the emerging international order at the global and regional levels above, we will now turn to the discussion of India as a key state in the emerging order. India's role as a key state in the international system will comprise:

• A wider regional (as distinct from merely sub-continental) role and important 'responsibilities' in the region.
• A close co-operation with the predominant powers particularly U.S on the 'vital issues' on NWO agenda.

1.4.1) The changes on the ground

The role of India will gradually unfold with the NWO taking a definite shape at global and regional levels. However, considered proposals regarding India's role in the emerging global order (not just political statements) have been coming up in recent years from very responsible quarters i.e strategic planners and institutions, political thinkers and analysts. In terms of some practical steps also India has made some headway in the direction of its emerging role. To all this we will return shortly, first, we will have a brief look at something more important: the changes on the ground that are now under way in India and are absolutely essential to India's qualifying as a key state in the international system. We believe there are definite 'ground rules' on the basis of which one can be either integrated into or isolated from the international system depending on conforming or not conforming to the 'rules'. These 'rules' laid down by Clinton (cf.1.2.2) are summed up in just two words, 'market democracies'. For a state to be included among the key states in the international system, its being a market democracy is essential. So let us see with reference to concrete changes on the ground, how India is on the road to join the 'community of market democracies' (cf.1.2.2). To get a better appreciation of these changes i.e to understand what type of changes a state should be undergoing in order to qualify as a market democracy let us again be clear about the meaning of market democracy in the NWO. The term 'Market Democracy' has two components namely:

• Market--- this covers the changes in the economic system. Free and liberalised economy driven by market forces makes this state a 'market'.
• Democracy--- the essential meaning of democracy for the West is mentioned in fn.4 below. People's participation in the governance of a country is definitely not the essential meaning of democracy. Is Iran ever referred to as a democracy, although people duly participate in the governance there? By democracy is meant a whole socio-cultural package--- that is a way and system of life with no absolute norms, values and rules of right or wrong and unchecked 'freedoms' in all spheres of life. A state qualifies as a democracy when it fulfils these requirements.

Therefore, by market democracy what is meant is a state with a free economy and unchecked 'freedoms' all along (restricted only by perceived self-interest). With this understanding we will look for two types of changes on ground now underway in India:

a) Economic: There have been tremendous changes going on in the Indian economy for the past seven or eight years. A brief summary of economic changes and other related developments:

The actual foreign direct investment (FDI) between 1991 and Jan 1994 was in excess of US$ 1 bn 43 and by 1997 FDI is going to touch US$ 4.5 bn mark.44

Foreign investors have been investing on an average of US$ 300-400 m every month since the beginning of 1996.45

There was more U.S investment in India in 1994 than in the previous 40 years46 and this year alone it was totalling US$ 5 bn.47

Star T.V is expected to invest U.S$ 1.4 bn in 1997 when, as it looks most likely, it will set up its operation head quarters in Karnataka- the southern province of India. One of the reasons for choosing India can be that India is the single largest source of revenue for Star T.V (40%) followed next by Taiwan (37%)48.

Market capitalization on Indian money markets stood at Rs.1,102,790 m in July 199149 i.e approximately US$ 34 bn and now the Professional Investor in its August '96 issue reports that it has gone up to US$ 140 bn , and this according to it makes India a 'market too big to ignore'50.

Among the multinational corporations entering Indian market, automobile companies have entered in a big way and in this sector according to Bombay stock exchange president M G Damani, 'you name any giant in the world and they are trying to set up a shop here'51.

In July 1994 after the then Indian Prime Minister P V Narisimah Rao's U.S visit, the Aid India Consortium was renamed as India Development Forum, and this is taken to be a significant move.52 It signals the India's creditor-nations' decision to invest in India instead of merely aiding.

An India interest group consisting of 31 major U.S multinational corporations investing in India was formed with active Indian encouragement.53 This has become a strong and influential support group for India in U.S.54

b) Socio-Cultural: In (a) we listed some facts from which the truth of India turning into market is clearly deducible . Now we will list a few facts which point to India's becoming a democracy. Thus from the facts in (a) and (b) taken together the truth of India joining the 'community of market democracies' will become manifest.

Cable T.V has mesmerised the Indian Hindus. Channels like Zee or Star are highly popular. Out of three Star-Viewers one is Indian.55 Because of this popularity Rupert Murdoch, owner of Star T.V is seriously thinking of moving his operation headquarters from Hong Kong (the present location) to India in 1997. Already Star T.V has a building on 60,000 sq. feet in Bombay which is to be used as Indian operating head quarter.56

A new sex-channel is going to be launched soon on Indian T.V named +21. It will be the first such adult late night channel showing sex, seduction and violence. It will take off with a hundred part serial based on 'Kamasutra' an ancient 'comprehensive sex guide' of Pagan India. It will be free for the first year and will be converted into a pay channel the next.57

India for the first time is holding a 'Miss World Contest'. The event is organised by Amitabh Bachan, a leading film star and formerly a member of parliament of the Lower House of Indian Parliament. To be held in Banglore, a South Indian city, in November this year, the event is expected to be seen by 2 bn TV viewers in almost hundred countries.58

1.4.2) Voices in Support of India's Wider/Global Role

Our purpose in the preceding section was to show on the basis of some factual evidence that if the voices about a wider/global Indian role are heard from responsible quarters it is not just rhetoric; these voices are well thought out and India is really propped up as a key state capable of actually discharging wider/global role. In this section we will briefly allude to the sources wherefrom the voices of India's wider global role are being heard.

Dr Stephen Cohen, an India-expert, speaking at the 34th annual conference of the international institute of strategic studies, held in Soeul in Sept. 1992, declared 'there is a unanimous agreement that India should be a global power...'59 Similar voices are heard from so many others, among them Henry Kissinger, Paul Dibb, Raju Thomas60 etc. etc. . On the assumption of power by Bharitaya Janata party (BJP) in Delhi, albeit for a brief tenure, the U.S state department spokesman Nicholas Burns said on May 16 that 'India for us is one of the key states for stability in 21st century.'61 The European Commission's (EC) vice-president Manuel Marin in a recent interview to the senior associate editor of India Today echoed almost the same view: The EU and in particular the EC have considered India an important and essential partner in the Asiatic World.'62 India itself has always nurtured a great power ambition. Although, it has not made a noise about it, its ambitions are very clearly reflected in:

• seeking a permanent seat at the U.N security council
• A huge naval build-up
• Missile programme that enhances India's capability to deliver nuclear or other war heads.

1.4.3) India's Role: Its Main Dimension

India's wider role will have an overwhelming military-strategic dimension. India will be a key player in all such schemes, strategies, relationships and alliances that come up to address the security concerns of NWO. As was said at (1.1.4.3) the NWO perceives Islam as a threat at the global level i.e threatening the order as a whole and then there are particular threat perceptions of the predominant powers in NWO e.g U.S and western Europe perceiving China as a threat to their predominance. India shares, both, the global and the particular threat perceptions of the NWO and has shown a missionary zeal to act as a key player in the international system for countering these threats. The statement of the U.S state dept. spokesman mentioned earlier brings out precisely this character of India's emerging role. India's men in charge themselves conceive of India's role mainly in these terms i.e military-strategic and so does the India's strategic community.63

1.4.4) India's Role: Sphere's of Activism

India's spheres of activism will be, both, global as well as regional. India's activism in the global sphere is and will be indexed by the deepening Indo-U.S relationship, and that in the regional sphere by India's growing involvement in the regional international system.

1.4.4.1) Global sphere

Indo-U.S defence relationship is not entirely new. There had been a close defence relationship in John F Kennedy's tenure and also behind India's nuclear and missile build-up there has been a vital element of U.S support. However, in the present Indo-U.S relationship there is an element of newness which was formally introduced by U.S defence secretary William Perry's visit to India last year. According to India's strategic thinkers it was for the first time that India was engaged in a 'strategic dialogue' with any country.64 Before this, Indo-U.S defence dialogue used to address bilateral security concerns, but for the first time Indo-U.S talks centred on the issue of security as such in the NWO and on the ways of partnership in countering security threats. U.S Ambassador to India Frank Wisner had earlier set the tone for Perry's visit when in an address to United Service Institution in New Delhi in November 1994 he said: Global security will depend on the co-operation of great powers--- the U.S, Europe, Russia, China, Japan and India --- working together.65 Later, during Perry's visit in the third week of Jan 1995 it was noted in 'agreed minutes' between him and the Indian Minister of State for Defence that 'our mutual concerns about new threats to international security ensure appropriate conditions for expanding Indo-U.S military co-operation and contacts to our mutual benefit.'66 These 'agreed minutes' did not create some essentially new reality on the ground; the U.S planes bombarding Iraq during the Gulf War in 1991 were refuelled at Bombay without 'agreed minutes' being signed then. Indo-U.S agreements merely accorded 'recognition to a welcome turn in the global security environment'67, an environment in which India's wider role needed to be legitimatized. 'New threats' to 'international security' becoming the basis of Indo-U.S co-operation reflects significantly India's security perceptions: For India security threats lie beyond its frontiers. This perception as such is not new; its articulation is. It is precisely this perception that lies at the core of India's decision to explode a nuclear device in 1974, not to sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and now, not to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). What is significant is that so far India came up only with moral pretensions without articulating the real reason, but now while opposing CTBT India openly linked this opposition to its 'national security considerations'68 and these considerations were ' dealt with in a kind of detail never attempted before'69 (emphasis mine). This decision to articulate its security perceptions clearly has to do with India's emerging role as a key state in the NWO. This also has to be noted that the threat beyond frontiers that India perceives is basically Islam, which Professor R Thomas rather candidly characterizes as 'an indeterminate complex mix of 'external' 'internal' and 'transnational' threats.'70 On this basis Shekhar Gupta, the senior editor of India Today in his research paper foresees that among other things 'commonly shared perceptions of regional stability and the threat of expanding militant Islam will be areas of agreement between India and the U.S in the near future.'71

1.4.4.2) Regional Sphere

In the regional sphere India's activism will be through (i) its engagement in Asian BoP system (cf. 1.3);

(ii) its participation in region's international organizations ASEAN, ARF etc. etc. and

(iii) its political-cultural incursions into Central Asian region.

(a) Engagement in the BoP system: The basic objective of India's engagement here will be, in concert with others, to balance China. in this role, West is confident about India as being ultimately the Anglo-Saxon proxy, so much so that if sometime in future the so-called Huntington's 'clash of civilizations' occurs and China and Japan unite against U.S, even then Western strategists are sure, India will side with U.S and Russia.72 It is interesting to note that as back as in 1966 Alastair Buchan, the then director of the IISS, London argued in an article in Encounter (Dec. 1966) that a Japanese-Australian-Indian entente might form a countervailing force to China and thus provide the basis for an internal Asian power-balance. Buchan went on arguing that the three Asian powers could assume broad regional responsibilities while strengthening its military capability.73

(b) ASEAN, ARF participation: Here the objective of Indian role will be to get a close access to the political-security decision-making of Asia-Pacific. Recently India has been made full dialogue partner of ASEAN and also member of ARF. India was also invited to a one-day closed door ministerial meeting of ARF, that took place in Djakarta on July 23, 1996.74 While promoting its economic interests through ASEAN, India will work for regional 'security' and 'stability' through ARF which in effect means working for vital U.S political and economic interest in the region. 'Closer U.S-Indian security ties' some analysts say, will add 'a new element to the evolving security architecture of the Asia-Pacific region.'75

(c) Incursions into Central Asian region: Indian incursions into Central Asian region seek to promote global interests of the NWO. Indian leaders visited Central Asian States and almost every Head of State from Central Asian republics visited India within six months of their independence. The main theme promoted through all these visits was the threat from 'fundamentalism' and 'importance of secularism for regional stability.'76